您的位置 :航运界 > 航运专栏 > 正文

星巴克的咖啡是怎样打败散货船的?

发布时间:2016-05-04 15:19:05  来源:航运界     专家:王海 访问个人主页
 


最近有媒体援引英国《卫报》的报道称,伦敦交易所最后一家上市航运公司Goldenport近期已被摘牌,并将剩余8艘船中的6艘,以1美元的价格贱卖。于是,媒体得出结论:一艘干散货轮船居然比一杯星巴克还便宜。1美元,你就能成为一艘载重5.84万吨干散货船的主人!
 

 

 

业内把这种船型叫做“suparmax”。而这条新闻在国内航运圈子中广为流传,不禁使笔者想来谈谈这件事。

 

既然要比较咖啡和散货船,那我们就首先要简单了解一下这两者所在的市场,即一般商品市场中的快消品市场和运输市场中的租船市场。

 

一般商品市场包括消费品市场和工业品市场,是各方在交易中所产生的经济活动和经济关系的总和。快速消费品是使用寿命短,消费速度快,注重品牌、包装和面向大众的消费品,比如星巴克咖啡。在这种市场中,交易顺序应当是:生产→销售→消费。对于星巴克咖啡来说,其门店中最终产品的生产过程也是极快的,通常几分钟时间就能搞定。星巴克的消费者都是自然人,星巴克咖啡的使用价值体现在让人饮用时感到愉悦。在如今,快消品市场的供求一般不受时间和空间的影响。

 

运输市场则不同于一般商品市场。运输市场是运输参与各方进行运输服务交易中所产生的经济活动与经济关系总和。散货船是运输市场中的国际航运市场中的租船市场上的运输工具。需要注意的是,运输市场的交易物并不是普通商品,而是一种服务。运输工具的使用价值依赖于其所运载的商品或者货物,没有运输物,运输工具就没有使用价值。运输市场与一般商品市场最大的区别之一在于,运输市场的交易顺序是销售先于生产进行,而生产与消费则同步进行,比如租船市场,首先要有特定的货物运输需求,船货双方经过谈判确定运输合同(租约),即船方将船舶的全部或者部分舱位首先销售出去,然后船舶才能执行生产过程(航次)的第一步:开航去装港。而在生产过程(航次)的最后一步——目的港卸货——完成后,消费过程同时宣告终止。不仅如此,租船市场的消费者可不是大众化的自然人。简言之,星巴克是“2C”的,散货船船东是“2B”的。此外,运输市场的供求受到时间与空间的影响也较大,这也就是为什么散货船要分为好多种“型”的原因。

 

再来说说投资回报率。投资回报率的最简单计算公式是利润额/投资额*100%。因此,如何降低成本扩大规模效应才是提高投资回报的根本所在。目前,星巴克是世界上最大的咖啡连锁店,在全球拥有超过20000间门店,品牌效应极大,虽然没有垄断市场,但“不在星巴克,就在去星巴克的路上”充分体现了其强大的市场占有率。由于是连锁经营+生产与消费分离,星巴克降低成本的策略和方式要简单得多,也要多很多。然而租船运输是不定期船运输,与班轮运输不同,租船运输没有固定航线、固定挂靠港和一定时期内的固定价格,是按照船货双方的合同约定提供服务,服务范围、时间、内容等分散且不确定;于是,哪怕世界上最大的散货船船东也无法形成犹如星巴克一样的标准化、规模化。加之生产与消费不分,散货船船东控制成本的的策略和方法十分有限。星巴克的巨大成功有赖于其优秀的管理和较高的投资回报;而船舶经营的高投入、高负债和低投资回报是航运业常识。世界最大最具盈利能力的航运公司马士基航运在2015年年报中披露的投资回报率仅为6.5%,而2016年一季度更是低至0.7%。马士基航运还是从事强调规模化经营的班轮运输的。

 

总之,快消品市场与运输市场存在巨大差别,将这两种市场中的商品(服务)放到一起进行比较是不科学的。具体来说,拿一杯星巴克咖啡的价格与散货船的价格对标,是不科学的。

 

说回到本文开头的新闻。众所周知,船舶是投资金额大,使用时间长的运输工具。笔者了解到,目前,一流船厂10年船龄以下的二手suparmax型散货船市场价格在600万美元以上,即使是20年船龄的类似老船(其实这种船型从推出市场到现在还没有10年呢),打个对折,也足够开一家豪华的咖啡馆了。为求精确,笔者还专门查询了一下这艘当事船。
 

 

 

此船名为“Eleni D”,所有权、经营权和管理权均归属英国公司Goldenport该船2010年由韩国船厂SPP Plant & Shipbuilding建造,总长196米,型宽23.23米,型深18.6米,总吨34374,净吨19565,载重吨58429吨,挂利比里亚国旗,入级法国船级社,保赔协会是伦敦保赔协会东京备忘录评价为标准风险船舶。目前,该船正航行在印度尼西亚爪哇海海域(红色字体告诉你什么是真正的国际性行业)。经笔者询问船舶经纪人,这艘年仅6岁的壮年船市场价格至少要1000万美元,请问这能买多少杯星巴克咖啡呀?
 

 

 

Goldenport公司用1美元的低价来抛售其运输工具,即使船舶本身不存在使用价值,但用正常的逻辑看来依然不合理。哪怕是将船拖到拆船厂拆解呢,废钢+残油也不可能只有区区的1美元啊!这么惊世骇俗的跳楼大甩卖的个中缘由,恐怕只有当事人自己最清楚。

 

说到这里,我们来看一下1美元卖船事件的英文新闻原文(全文可点击文末【阅读原文】查阅):

 


 

该公司首席执行官表示,公司的债权人和股东同意,当公司在苏格兰皇家银行其他银行的债务超过1亿英镑时出售船队。“船舶价值因极端市场条件而小于贷款价值”。结合现如今的航运市场形势,需求不振和运力过剩叠加,低价抛售资产明显是有意为之。我们再来看一下Goldenport公司4月22日在交易所的公告原文:
 

Goldenport Holdings Inc.
Athens, 22 April 2016
 
 
Update on Discussions with Lenders and Delisting of Ordinary Shares
 
 
Goldenport Holdings Inc. ("Goldenport" or "the Company"), (LSE: GPRT) the international shipping company that owns and operates a fleet of dry bulk and container  vessels, announces today an update on discussions with its lenders and the delisting of its Ordinary Shares from the London Stock Exchange.
 
 
Update on Discussions with Lenders and Sale of Vessels
 
On 22 January 2016, the Company suspended the servicing of its debt and has been in ongoing negotiations with its lenders to restructure its loan facilities. As set out in the Circular to Shareholders and Notice of EGM dated 11 March 2016, the amount of debt outstanding under each loan facility is significantly higher than the independent broker valuation of the respective vessels. On 31 March 2016, the Company obtained shareholder approval to proceed with the sale of certain vessels for a token consideration to entities controlled by the Dragnis family, subject to the novation of the related loan facilities, and to proceed with the disposal of all or substantially all of the assets of the Company otherwise than in the usual or regular course of the business conducted by the Company.
 
Despite the Company's best efforts to restructure its loan facilities, in the absence of availability of new capital to resume regular interest payments, the lenders have expressed their preference for selling six out of the eight vessels for a token consideration to entities controlled by the Dragnis family, subject to the novation of the related loan facilities, and selling the remaining two vessels in full and final settlement of the related loan facilities.
 
In light of the above, the Directors have unanimously approved the following vessel sales:
 
·    the sale of the Eleni D to Nemea Marine S.A. for US$1, subject to the novation of the related Commerzbank Loan Facility;
·    the sale of Milos and Pisti to Verona Navigation S.A. for US$1, subject to the novation of the related RBS Loan Facilities;
·    the sale of D Skalkeas, Erato and Paris Jr to Meteora Shiptrading S.A. for US$1, subject to the novation of the related UniCredit Loan Facility; and
·    the sale of Sifnos and Sofia for the best consideration that can be obtained, in full and final settlement of the related RBS Loan Facilities.
 
Nemea Marine S.A., Verona Navigation S.A. and Meteora Shiptrading S.A. are each companies controlled by the Dragnis family.
 
 
Cancellation of Admission to the Official List of the UKLA and to Trading on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange
 
Further to the aforementioned decision to sell all the vessels of the Company, the Directors have unanimously approved a request to the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA") for the cancellation of the admission of the Company's Ordinary Shares to the Official List of the UKLA and to trading on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange (the "Main Market"), pursuant to Listing Rule 5.2.8 (the "Delisting").
 
Reasons for the Delisting
 
As the Company has previously reported, the dry bulk and containership shipping markets have become increasingly challenging with increasing idle capacity, weakening vessel charter rates and receding asset values.
 
The prevailing market conditions are probably the worst of the last 30 years with the Baltic Dry Index dropping to historic lows, and average daily hire rates falling below even a vessel's daily operating expenses. As a consequence, the Company's cash reserves have been drained, in order to cover operating expenses and finance costs. In light of the foregoing, the reduction of costs, whilst maintaining an appropriate level of service, has been one of the Company's main objectives.
 
The adverse market conditions have made Company losses unavoidable over the past few years. During the same period, there has been a significant fall in the Company's Ordinary Share price, resulting in a shrinking market capitalization.
 
The primary objectives and perceived benefits of being quoted on a public market are to gain access to capital and create a liquid market in the Company's Ordinary Shares. If these objectives cannot be achieved efficiently and cost effectively, the Board has a duty to reconsider the merits of a listing. The Board has reached the view that the Company does not enjoy any of these benefits. In particular, the Company has not managed to raise capital and increase its free float since the Placing and Open Offer in July 2010 and, furthermore, has always suffered from low levels of liquidity in the trading of its Ordinary Shares.
 
In the current financial climate as described above, and taking into account the Company's low market capitalization and the costs of maintaining the listing, while having no operating assets after the proposed disposals mentioned above, it has become evident that it would be economically sensible to proceed with the Delisting.
 
There are costs associated with maintaining the Company's listing on the London Stock Exchange, including the annual fees payable to the London Stock Exchange and other related professional costs. The Delisting will significantly reduce administrative expenses and management time required in connection with being a publicly listed company and enable management to focus on the proposed disposals mentioned above.
 
In accordance with Listing Rule 5.2.8, the Company is required to give at least 20 business days' notice of the intended cancellation.  Accordingly, the preferred date of cancellation is 24 May 2016 and the Company has made a request to the FCA to this effect. It is expected that trading on the Main Market in the Ordinary Shares will cease at the close of business on 23 May 2016 with the Delisting becoming effective from 0800 UK time on 24 May 2016 (the "Cancellation Date").
 
Effects of Delisting on Shareholders and Corporate Governance
 
The principal effect of the Delisting is that Shareholders will no longer be able to buy and sell Ordinary Shares on the Main Market or any other public stock market and the Company will no longer be required to comply with the continuing obligations set out in the Listing Rules and the Disclosure and Transparency Rules. In particular, the Company will not be bound to announce to the market material events, administrative changes or material transactions, or to announce interim or final results.
 
The Company intends to continue to prepare annual consolidated financial statements, which will be audited in accordance with IFRS and sent to Shareholders.
 
Furthermore, the Company will no longer be required to comply with corporate governance requirements applicable to publicly listed companies, and the Company will no longer be subject to the provisions of the Disclosure and Transparency Rules relating to the disclosure of changes in significant shareholdings in the Company.
 
The Company will continue to comply with applicable laws and regulations, including the Marshall Islands Business Corporations Act and the provisions of the Company's Articles of Association.
 
It is the Company's intention to retain the existing Board structure that comprises three Directors; the Non-Executive Chairman of the Board and two Executive Directors.
 
Trading of Ordinary Shares before and after Delisting
 
During the time period following the announcement of the Company's intention to cancel its Main Market listing, the Shareholders are entitled to sell Ordinary Shares in the market before the Delisting takes place. However, there may not be sufficient liquidity in the market to facilitate this in all cases.
 
The Ordinary Shares will remain freely transferable after Delisting, although there will be no listing or quoting of the Ordinary Shares on any regulated market. Accordingly, the Ordinary Shares may not be readily capable of sale, and the price at which any such sale occurs may not reflect the value of an interest in the Company.
 
Information for Depositary Interest Holders
 
Depositary Interest Holders should contact their nominee, stockbroker, bank or other agent to obtain further information on how the cancellation of the listing of the Shares on the Official List and removal of such shares from trading on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange will impact such holders.
 
Taxation
 
All Shareholders are advised to consult their professional advisers about their own tax position, as the Delisting may have taxation consequences for Shareholders.
 

这么一大段笔者实在懒得翻译了,各位客官可自行阅读。但把这一大段缩减成一句大白话来说就是母公司为上市公司提供贷款担保,上市公司玩儿完后用1美元将资产和负债打包扔回给母公司。其实根本用不着花钱,白送都可以。话说回来,但凡这船能卖出去,并且价格可以高于负债,“1美元”的事情就不会出现。实际上,这应当不能算是正常销售,而是上市公司的财务处理,“一美元”的便宜不是谁都能占的。

 

就这样,星巴克咖啡在价格上战胜了散货船。综上,用特殊情形去对比常态化销售所得出的任何结论都是不靠谱的。标题党害死人啊!

 

其实,航运业中类似这种不科学的对比不止这一例。前阵子还有个一艘大型集装箱船一天的排放量相当于多少多少辆重型卡车的新闻,想必大家还都没有忘记。只不过这种比较属于简单的绝对值比较,而忽略了单位排放的概念。你怎么不说一艘集装箱船的运量相当于多少辆卡车呢?若依前述逻辑,自行车的排放几乎为0,那么为了环保,大家都骑车去跑运输算了。如果是这样,人类社会不是越活越抽抽了么。降低排放保护环境,是包括船舶在内的所有交通运输工具在生产与经营过程中都应当参与并积极贯彻的,决不应该只把棍子打到航运业身上。

 

最后再说一句,新闻里提到的金融博客Zerohedge就是上回说“海上没有一艘船,贸易陷入停滞”的。当时,航运界网(微信号:shipsh)就予以了批驳。各位,都长点心吧。

0
 
社区登录
社区热点 更多>>
迷你博客 查看更多>>
王清三无阶级~加油!(回复)
陈国卿船舶保险条款 PICC86 & PICC96的比较 分类:船壳保(回复)
钟晓乐方舟子戳破几个常识性的谎言,就被满网抄斩,逼得逃往平时他(回复)
钟晓乐看了渣浪的所谓的对话直播,只播出官员们的说话,学生的话,连(回复)
钟晓乐拳王阿里,除了是体育人物,还是宗教人物和政治人物.在拒绝接(回复)
第一天来,冒个头(回复)
第一天来,冒个头(回复)
爱船网-航运信息港(www.aiship.cn)加微信有惊喜哦 微信号(回复)
钟晓乐刚看完了 How to Train Your Dragon 2,大概是一个讲一个邪(回复)
周建芳(回复)
周建芳感觉到了一丝丝凉意!(回复)
朱胤峰我司专业日本航线十年,欢迎同行询价、合作。 我司优势有很(回复)
武嘉璐现在CI已经没有了么?竟然消失了(回复)