发布时间:2020-02-01 11:50:31 来源:航运界 专家：众盟航运智库
The challenges for 2020
承接2019年的跌势，2020年第一个月的CNPI指数继续微跌0.1%至803点。农历新年假期，加上武汉肺炎的疫情蔓延，中国造船厂很可能推迟开工日期。即使正月十五（也即2月8日）后开工未必招募到足够的劳力，还要采取各种防控措施，以免在工厂发生疫情，间接又提高了成本；万一发生疫情被封了工厂，那损失就更大了。外国买家对中国的疫情也会有所顾忌，至少会采取Wait and see的策略。
Following the decline in 2019, the CNPI continued to edge down 0.1% to 803 points in the first month of 2020. Chinese shipbuilders are likely to delay work due to the spread of a coronavirus causing pneumonia in Wuhan. Even if production resumes after February 8, as is traditionally the case, it may not be possible to recruit enough man powers, and various protection and control measures must be taken to prevent outbreaks in yards, indirectly raising costs. If an outbreak were to shut down the yard, the loss would be even bigger. Foreign buyers will also be wary of an outbreak in China, or at least wait and see.
"The market will continue to decline in the first half of 2020 and there will be a new wave of prices after the summer of 2020,"
a panel member broker told CNPI.
The outbreak shall make downward pressure on China's economy. It remains to be seen how much and how long the impact will be, but the BDI crash and the continued slide in CNPI have already foretold some of the impact. When factories resume work later, electricity consumption will decline, and so will coal and raw material consumption, which will eventually affect steel demand. If the outbreak continues and/or expands, Chinese export cargoes may be required by other countries to take special quarantine inspection, the impact will be magnified.
According to the China Business Network：
"in its latest world economic outlook report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the global economy showed mixed signs of 'initial stabilization but weak recovery,' cutting its trade growth forecasts for 2020 and 2021 by 0.3% and 0.1% to 2.9% and 3.7%, respectively. The World Trade Organization had forecasted a 2.7% increase in world trade in 2020, citing continued weakness in raw materials and electronic components."
A general poor performance of new orders in 2019 is expected. According to CANSI statistics (data from Clarksons), global new orders in 2019 were 25.45 million CGT, down 12.2% from 2018, within which 8.35 million CGT went to China in 2019, down 10.5%; South Korea received 9.43 million CGT in 2019, down 24.3% from 2018. However, South Korea still leads the world in terms of new orders, accounting for 37% in 2019. South Korea's share was even higher at 43% in 2018. While China's share of new orders rose slightly from 32.2 % in 2018 to 32.8% in 2019 remained at the second place.
The global orderbook level reached 76.6 million CGT in 2019, a decrease of 4.1% over 2018. China still holds the No.1 position, accounting for 35.5%, but this is down 5% from 2018. South Korea accounted for 29.4%, up 8.2% from 2018; Japan accounted for 15.7%, down 12.6% from 2018.
In 2019, the global total deliveries were 32.81 million CGT, an increase of 8.6% over 2018. China continued to be No.1, accounting for 33.8%, up 1.7% from 2018. South Korea accounted for 29%, up 23.5% from 2018. Japan accounted for 24.8%, up 8.2% from 2018.
Dry Bulkers：New Orders Increased in Foreign Yards
The CNDPI continued its month-on-month decline of 0.24% to 827 points in January, down 2.8% from a year earlier. Capesize sub-index in January was down 2.0% and Kamsarmax sub-index fell 4.0% from a year earlier.
New orders for bulk carriers in China fell 58.6% (in number of ships) or 65.5% (in deadweight tons) in 2019 from 2018, while new orders for dry bulk carriers at foreign yards (mainly Japanese yards) rose 40.0% (in number of ships) and 22.9% (in deadweight tons) in 2019 from 2018. "Japanese shipowners are more likely to choose Japanese yards for bulk carriers," Forocean shipbrokers wrote in a comment to CNPI.
Tanker：New Order Increased in 2019
CNTPI for oil tankers edged down 0.23% in Jan from Dec 2019 to 856 points, down 1.5% from a year earlier. CNPI panel brokers said that the recent MR, LR2 and Suezmax still have inquiries. In 2019, the new orders of tankers in China increased by 22.0% (in number of ships) and 127.5% (in deadweight tons) compared with 2018, mainly because the orders received in 2018 were too small and the growth rate soared due to a small base. New orders placed to foreign yards, mainly South Korea, rose 13.3% in deadweight tons, despite a slight 1.9% decline in number of ships.
Boxship：Big Ship Order Increased in Chinese Yards
The CNCPI was flat at 835 points in January from the end of last year, down 4.0% from a year earlier. Four of the five sub-indices fell slightly, while the 2,700 teu index rose 0.45%, mainly because some panel members raised the valuation of this type of ship. However, the rise is not revelatory because of lack of fixtures.
New orders for containerships reduced by 62.7% (in number of ships) and 38.2% (in TEU) in 2019 compared with 2018, among which orders received by Chinese yards decreased by 69.5% in number of ships but increased by 9.9% in capacity (teu), indicating that the proportion of large ships received by Chinese yards increased, while foreign yards (mainly South Korea) decreased by 56.1% in number of ships and 49.4% in capacity (teu) respectively. Chinese finance leasing companies play a significant role in promoting big ship orders (see CNPI market report no. 147).
In the long run, the prospects for the global container liner market is in the shadow of the economic slowdown. Professor Xu Jianhua believes that global uncertainties continue to put pressure on the container liner market, with shipping companies suffering the coldest "winter" in the capital market this century.
Alphaliner warned that：
the "TEU multiplier" -- the ratio of container throughput growth to GDP growth -- continued to decline. Historically, the TEU multiplier was 3.4 in the 1990s and 2.6 at the begining of this century. But since the 2008 financial crisis, that ratio has fallen to around 1.4, and Alphaliner expects the container "TEU multiplier" to fall below 1 in 2019.
Other Ship Types：Gas Carrier May Become New Hope
While foreign yards saw a decline in new orders for gas carriers, Chinese yards saw a significant increase in new orders in 2019 compared with 2018, up 133.3% in terms of number of vessels and 194.0% in terms of capacity (cubic meters). "The gas carrier orders are still backed by long time charter and financial institutions," said Forocean Shipbrokers.
Forocean Shipbrokers further pointed out that
"as European shipowners choose Chinese yards for new orders of ropax and have successful delivery experience, more and more European shipowners are trying to place ropax orders in Chinese yards other than German and/or other European yards. Finnlines' order at China Merchants Jinling (Weihai) is a good example. "
Newbuilding Orders Disclosed in Jan. 2020
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United Shipping Consultant (Shanghai) Ltd